When sales and ad spend both rise, it's easy to assume causation. But is the growth real, or just correlation? This simulation reveals the expensive truth of confusing the two.
This view suggests a 17x return, justifying aggressive spending. However, it fails to account for customers who would have converted anyway.
By isolating a control group, the A/B test reveals the true return is 2x. This is a profitable, but vastly different, business case that prevents millions in misallocated budget.